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Tactics for tough times - Alan Hull

 
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Old 24-06-2008, 08:27 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by Tropo View Post
Why?
50% retracement is at 4757 (XJO).
Tropo

I thought the chart speaks for itself.
I am thinking that if it increases in a straight line for many years and all of a sudden we have a massive spike there are 2 things that can happen.

1 it will stay at that level for a while until time catches up with it or
2 it will gradually decline to where it should be.

With all the financial problems, the credit crisis, the Iran clouds approaching, it could take 1 year or more before fear eases and people's confidence returns.
If it takes time for the situation to get back to normal then the chart should be higher.
If it gets back to normal tomorrow then the chart should be lower.

IMHO
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Old 24-06-2008, 09:48 AM   #12
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BV,

Charts always speak for themselves
There is nothing on the attached chart (IMHO) which may suggest that you (or anybody else) should long the market at/under 4500 level (if we get there).

1 it will stay at that level for a while until time catches up with it or
2 it will gradually decline to where it should be.


It seems that YOU are trying to tell where the market should be...

If it takes time for the situation to get back to normal then the chart should be higher.
If it gets back to normal tomorrow then the chart should be lower.


Charts do not tell you this.

Last edited by Tropo; 24-06-2008 at 11:23 AM.
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Old 24-06-2008, 10:27 AM   #13
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Tropo

ok, I will rethink my strategy in 6 months time

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Old 24-06-2008, 10:33 AM   #14
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Tropo

ok, I will rethink my strategy in 6 months time

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Perfecto
This link may help you :Chart Analysis - StockCharts.com
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Old 24-06-2008, 10:44 AM   #15
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Trend Lines - StockCharts.com

Conclusion
Trend lines can offer great insight, but if used improperly, they can also produce false signals. Other items - such as horizontal support and resistance levels or peak-and-trough analysis - should be employed to validate trend line breaks. While trend lines have become a very popular aspect of technical analysis, they are merely one tool for establishing, analyzing, and confirming a trend. Trend lines should not be the final arbiter, but should serve merely as a warning that a change in trend may be imminent. By using trend line breaks for warnings, investors and traders can pay closer attention to other confirming signals for a potential change in trend.
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Old 24-06-2008, 11:29 AM   #16
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Also:

"Many of the principles applicable to support and resistance levels can be applied to trend lines as well.
It is important that you understand all of the concepts presented in our Support and Resistance article before you continue".
Trend Lines - StockCharts.com
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Old 03-07-2008, 07:32 PM   #17
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The ASX is now below 5000
Is anyone buying soon or are you waiting on the sidelines?
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Old 03-07-2008, 08:32 PM   #18
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The ASX is now below 5000
Is anyone buying soon or are you waiting on the sidelines?
I'll be buying some more in my SMSF in due course - but for my other investments, I'm waiting on the sidelines for now.

I'm not convinced we will see returns above the 10%+ cost of interest over the next 6 - 12 months. I think we'll see a volatile market for the next 12+ months.

If I do enter in again for my non-SMSF investments, I may well do it without leverage (although the returns still have to exceed the returns I could get by parking the money in an offset account).
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Old 03-07-2008, 09:34 PM   #19
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If I do enter in again for my non-SMSF investments, I may well do it without leverage (although the returns still have to exceed the returns I could get by parking the money in an offset account).
Why ungeared?

Cheers
N
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Old 03-07-2008, 09:59 PM   #20
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Why ungeared?
As I said ... "I'm not convinced we will see returns above the 10%+ cost of interest over the next 6 - 12 months"

... and in the short term, capital preservation is critical for me as I have some large financial obligations coming up.
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