The good times are over?

Discussion in 'Investment Strategy' started by crc_error, 9th Jan, 2008.

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  1. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    "how can it keep falling like this?"


    Good one !!!:D:D
    Perhaps LPT is not aware that you put money in it.:eek:
     
  2. crc_error

    crc_error The Rule of 72

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    well its pritty silly a whole index falls to 3 year lows in the space of 1 month.

    If the all ords did that, we could see the 4000 range and I would say most of us would be broke.
     
  3. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    I suggest you have a really hard think about:

    A) what caused the credit crunch, and

    B) what the credit crunch actually means to the financial industry (like LPTs)

    ... the answers are all there.

    Listed property is no longer "as safe as houses" ... it hasn't been for a few years now ... Centro is a perfect example of why (too much leverage - too much risk).

    That being said, the US has shown us how greed and poor lending practices can cause exactly the same problem in direct residential property too :(
     
  4. Rod_WA

    Rod_WA Well-Known Member

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    Damn. Why would the ASX (down 20 at the moment) choose to decouple from the US the night before the only reasonable rise in the DOW in recent memory?;)

    The ASX could have at least jumped off a few weeks back!:D
     
  5. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Rule #1: the AU markets generally follow the US markets

    Rule #2: the AU markets do not exactly follow the US markets

    :p

    Have a look at this comparison of the DJIA and the XJO (attached) ... even though the XJO shows some separation during October ... even after this time, the XJO still follows the general pattern of the DJIA ... it's never exact - but it's very clear that our sentiment stems from the sentiment in US markets still.
     

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  6. crc_error

    crc_error The Rule of 72

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    So in that case, why bother diversifying, if everything is linked together?
     
  7. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Probably ASX is not aware what W. Buffet said. :eek:

    Bloomberg.com: Worldwide
     
  8. MichaelW

    MichaelW Well-Known Member

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    Having said that, have a read of this little article in the SMH today which might make you feel a tad better... :D

    Property sector showing shine | smh.com.au

    Cheers,
    Michael.
     
  9. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    William O’Neil:
    Diversification is a hedge for the ignorant.

    If you can not get one stock right how are you going to get a 5 or more right?:eek:
     
  10. FrankGrimes

    FrankGrimes Well-Known Member

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    Nice graph Sim. Thanks.

    And owch, XPJ @ 1918 points. I sold out at 2400 to buy another IP. (Just a fluke)
     
  11. crc_error

    crc_error The Rule of 72

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    funny thing is I almost sold out to buy a property also, but my offer wasnt high enough! (silent tender style bid accepted)
     
  12. FrankGrimes

    FrankGrimes Well-Known Member

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    How frustrating........ I bought in Brisbane at the start of 2007 with the LPT money, so in hindsight couldn't have timed it better. But other purchases have not been so good! I guess thats how it is though.
     
  13. crc_error

    crc_error The Rule of 72

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    two days in a row the US is up, yet our market is down... looks like this year might have international funds outperforming!
     
  14. crc_error

    crc_error The Rule of 72

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    interesting CER has been suspended from trade!
     
  15. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    There you go again - making predictions about things based on only a couple of days worth of data :rolleyes:

    I suggest that you really want to try and break that habit :eek:
     
  16. crc_error

    crc_error The Rule of 72

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    its not a market prediction, its, we usually follow the US lead.. and if the US is down 200 points, its safe to say we will be down.. and if the US is 100 points+ up, then usually we will have a positive day..

    but in this case we are just going down.. we follow the US when they go down, but now we don't follow them when they go up.. its looking scary for us now!
     
  17. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Scary is drops of more than 3% in a day or more than 10% in a week ... again, I wouldn't class a couple of days of relatively poor performance a predictor of things to come.

    (I'm also not suggesting we're going to have a stellar year).
     
  18. lorrimer

    lorrimer Well-Known Member

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    I would much rather see a big one day sell off of 4% or more, than steady small declines each day.
    It very often takes a capitulation day to flush out all the nervous sellers and build a base on which to start moving back up.
    The way the Aussie market is behaving at the moment is very odd, it seems to be out of whack not only with the US but Asia as well. After so many recent down days one would have expected a relief rally today at least for a few hours.
    One crumb of comfort is that the property sector seems to be holding up at the moment.
     
  19. crc_error

    crc_error The Rule of 72

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    there is lots of selling at present.
     
  20. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Buy more CER. It’s cheap :rolleyes:
     

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