Telstra shares good or bad

Gday guys,just wondering what peoples views are regarding telstra shares at present!
Everyone says sell sell sell. They are trading at all time lows and have stated that a 28 cent per share divvy is on the cards from FY11.
Now im not a savvy trader by any means(in fact im new)but they seem a safe bet to park some money for a while at these prices.
I just bought 20k worth at $2.65 ea and wondering if there are any tech heads/chartists out there that can shed some light on whether my "gut feeling"
to buy whilst at historic lows,will infact be a good choice in the med term!
Thanks NT

 

You are correct.
You are not a savvy "trader".
Below chart may explain to you what happened to all "smart investors/traders" who bought this dog around $8 ~ $9/share 9 years ago.
Dividends if any, should NOT be a reason to buy a stock !

Trading/investing rules ... http://www.invested.com.au/79/trading-rules-366/

 

Well no need to be a smart ass.
Im new to the trading scene and people like you are no help!
BTW your trading rule no 6 says you are a hypocrite!

 

It is a pity that you learnt nothing from my post.
Oh well...
BTW...do not ask questions if you do not like answers.

 

You really think your helping anyone?
Just keep drawing lines on free chart programs and leave the smart ass attitude at the door!

 

It's a valid point, and the contrarian approach says to go in the opposite direction to everybody else. There's at least one major tip-sheet rating TLS as a buy.

How much lower can it go? About $2.65 lower

What are its prospects? Well, TLS has ****** away a commanding position and is devouring itself just to slow the exodus of its customers. Add to that that many people don't bother with fixed lines any more, and that the cash-cow of telecoms (long distance) has now pretty much disappeared due to VOIP. Pretty much only the elderly or the technically inept pay long distance rates any more. Not a pretty picture.

The flip-side is that while everybody says wireless is the way of the future, they are plainly wrong for simple technical reasons (limited number of channels means more collisions, and once collisions reach a critical point, then throughput falls off a cliff). The best way to send high speed data is to run it along something - fibre, copper wire or between two tin cans if need be. A point-to-point medium works better than scatter transmissions and everybody scribbling over each others transmissions. Wireless is great, don't get be wrong. But if you want to move a mass of data really fast, you're better off using a cable of some sort. Fibre is better than copper, but copper has the advantage that it ALREADY EXISTS. And TLS owns it. 20 years ago, all you could pump down that copper was 56kbps. Now you can easily get 3000kbps and if you're lucky maybe 20000kbps. The same copper. Nobody had to dig a hole or lay new wire into your house.

A lot of this comes down to what happens with the pie-in-the-sky NBN. I think there's a better than zero chance that the project will either fail to launch, or go pear-shaped and TLS will be brought in with its copper to help save the day. There's be a lot of people very reluctant to swallow that, so hence much resistance. But its surely possible.

Also, although TLS is hemorrhaging customers, it still has a vast number of them. And customers are an asset. Okay, great challenges in keeping them and making money from them, but at least TLS has them, which is way better than not.

So is TLS a good buy? Beats me. There's reasons either way. Pivoting on a political outcome makes me uneasy, but there's probably all sorts of other business that pivot on a political outcome anyway (I'm looking at you, Marius Kloppers). Or just look how some of the gaming businesses have been clobbered out of the blue by politicians.

But it bears thinking about, that's for sure. Don't be dissuaded by prickly know-alls. Time is a great and impartial judge of who really knew what. There's a saying among graziers - the bigger the hat and the louder the voice, the smaller the property.

 

No offence N.T., but 'gut feelings' aren't a good reason to buy anything! Also charts can't predict the medium term time frame.




Johny.

 

I appreciate your comments!

 

I used to do a trade then ask for validation. That wasn't the best for me. I now question everything before I act. I still might be wrong, but at least I do my research.





Johny.

 

Well my username says it all

 

I lost some money with Commander, I personally would never invest in telco company again.

Do some homework on telcos in the past, OneTel, ENGIN etc...

It is simply unpredictable and no expert can provide you whit the crystal ball.

On another hand iiNet and TPG may be on the other site of spectrum.....

 

IMO there is no point buying it when fund managers don't want to hold it in their portfolio and are openly saying stay away from it.

Long term things could change but how long do we have to wait?

 

New trader, Your gut feeling to but TLS at 2.65 is correct. Don't be worried about it. That price is a price that has many bad news priced in, so that's great. Many other stocks are at prices that do not account for bad news that may just be around the corner. I think you did well. Just watch it and keep a trader mindset, not buy and hold thinking. The stock has fallen 21% from 3.33 to the 2.65 level. If you look at the chart, there has always been a bounce after that size of fall. So it is due for a rise of at least 6 cents or more. I bought 500,000 of them at 2.66 so you did better than me. Dont be scared to sell them once they get into the 2.80 range. Also,don't listen to brokers or analysts. Your gut feeling is far more superior.

Pushitin.

 

Pushitin

I'm guessing you've used other people's money?

I also believe TLS is a good buy at its current price and over time it should get better but in the short to medium term I'm not touching it because the US, EU etc aren't in great shape so external forces are likely to push share prices down.

I don't know when but.
I thought the end was near but its possible that we may have a big run up before the big players decide to pull out and all at the same time...

 

Thanks pushitin and bill

I havent bothered to get on here lately because of the likes of Tropo etc
But im feeling good about my TLS purchase and my "gut" says all will be ok!
cheers again
NT

 

IMO its a bit of a gamble.

Do a search on the splitting of Telstra
Conroy moves to split Telstra - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

 

It took a while and tested us all, but eventually came, a nice bounce. Was down more than 50k down near the bottom there. Now up 100k from the low. No pain no gain

Cant go wrong with an unloved beaten down big blue chip like TLS paying 10.9%.

 

I don't know if you will still be this happy when they split it on 2 and the dividend evaporates.
Maybe you should take your money and run before it happens...

 

Yes Billv, must not get too excited. Can't make a loss by taking a profit. It is still a dog of a stock, but I do believe the darkest days are over for now (over for say the next 6 weeks). It broke resistance at 2.71 with huge volume and that was important. It is possible that it will head back up towards 2.90 and 3.00. We will see.

 

Johny bit harsh mate, as a trader you need to determine your obejective and timeframe of positions.

I can see where Johhny is coming from, technically the charts do not look great. BUT, a 10+ dividend yield, long term buy in my mind is a good outcome. Yes Telstra have had their issues but their financials still are strong and operating cash is still good as well.

And Johnny, do you sell back in 2007??? Probably not, and did you BUY back in early 2009??? Probably not!!! The charts did not look great March 2009 did they. Generally when the media hype a certain asset class, its probably time to bail - i.e. Australia Property for me now - GONE!!

New trader, maybe state your intention and timing of position. But 12mths - you will be fine - it will return to $3.00.