ASX Shares Qantas

So what do people reckon - Qantas potentially going to drop low enough to be good buying at some point over the coming days and weeks?

 

QAN has let the bears, unions, live in its house for a long time. Unions are tearing this house apart since unions really don't care where QAN goes.

QAN's management team don't know how to put them on the driving seat for better QAN, which would be customer focus and could benefit to its shareholders and employees. Alan Joyce seems gamble to blow the whole house up and drive Union out of the game. Could he win?

A war between management and unions would terribly hurt QAN at least for months. In a war hurting or casualties are inevitable. How to close the war and remove the hating after the war? War is the extension of politics. QAN management has lost all cards to negotiate. Who would win in the war?

Could QAN remove unions completely? Could Unions not retaliate actively or passively if they are still there after the flights come back to the sky? Unhappy workforces with powerful leadership of unions would just care about their own interests only. Emotional reaction of employees has power to damage QAN more than people's image even QAN management has all of rationality to show its last card on the table. But it would be never best solution.

A few days or weeks for QAN to be at the rock bottom of its share price? Look impossible. The war is just at its beginning. Two powerful forces struggle in a box and it is far more risky than EU default to QAN! Unions are part of business culture formed in its history. Change the culture as we change our behavior is terribly difficult. A short-sight or a few years of CEO service time seem too short to do the job to change the culture. Feel sorry for QAN board and its employees.

Employees usually don't ask what they don't believe they deserve. Management usually is ignorant and arrogant. There are gaps to communicate. When employees feel unfair and management could not have good enough communications with the employees, the problem would hurt more than less.

Grounding all of flights seems too radical and drastic. Who would pay the cost? The shareholders and employees. Unions and management? The pig chiefs would take money into their pockets as always. They are paid to fight wisely or stupidly. QAN actually is a kind of service business and now it hurts so many customers, how could QAN get their customers' trust after the in house war?

Let's wait to see what government does, how the work relationship could be recovered, what impact to the travelers' habit, and keep our toes from QAN for sometimes. However it seemingly would drive a lot of investors sell on Monday. Could the sale be desperate for a few days? It looks it will!

The above just a exercise to evaluate the quality of a business and could not be taken seriously. I tend to be seriously wrong in the market.

 

At various times Qantas alternates between being a poor business at a overinflated price, and a poor business at a normal price. I wouldn't be inclined to buy a slice in either scenario.