GOLD

Gold is moving towards: $918/915, $888/885...possibly $869/866...

 

My gut instincts is telling me that gold is not going to perform well over the next few weeks and months.

The real threat of credit collapse has largely dissipated and I'm getting the impression that there is some movement out of gold back into the equity markets. Leaving a gold play now being based on a prediction of inflation.

Whilst I think inflation is probably a likely outcome, it is a much longer term outcome and as such gold is probably going to perform fairly poorly until a genuine recovery is underway. I'm still pretty bullish on gold in the long run, but in the short run it would seem it's had its moment to shine.

That or the FED announces it going extend its quantitative easing program to further suppress bond yields or if there is a relapse in the financial markets (which isn't completely off the cards though is looking less and less likely).

 

Gold sold like chocolate from German vending machines

Gold sold like chocolate from German vending machines
Gold sold like chocolate from German vending machines - Telegraph

 

I remember reading an article about this a few weeks ago, and whilst the idea is novel the most interesting thing was the markup they make on the gold. I think it was something like 30%!!

 

Selling pressure may increase if gold is trading under $888/885

 

It will be very interesting to see how gold holds up over the coming days and weeks, especially if the equity markets do start moving lower again...

 

Three Ways to Look at Gold

Three Ways to Look at Gold

 

Gold's a tough one at the moment, it looks like the meltdown of the economy has been averted for the time being which I imagine for many reduces the incentive to buy gold. However the aversion of economic collapse was largely achieved through massive fiscal and monetary stimulus. So higher inflation should be expected in the future increasing the demand for gold.

The biggest downside to gold in my opinion is that so much of it is held within central banks and as has been seen of late they are willing to act in unison to achieve desired results.

 

Gold: Resistance at $958
Range: $912/15 ~ $992

 

Gold:
Important Support at $962
On the upside : $1036....[$1065; $1101].
Happy Trading...

 

I am very wary of Gold and Silver ETF's, as per Tropo's post of that article.

Most people buy Precious Metals to protect themselves from currency devaluation by their governments ("printing" of money, ie creation of paper money = inflation of the money supply - leads to CPI inflation).

By buying the ETF's you are buying paper promises, in a market which is manipulated by governments and central banks, who don't want people to become wise to their ways. The silver and gold "held" in these ETF's can't be independently audited, and has for it's custodians banks which are in with the manipulators. How do you know the metal is in fact there? How do you know it's not leased?

Theodore Butler has some good articles on this topic if anyone wants to search.

For my money, don't buy the ETF's but buy the real thing! Get your leverage if desired through the miners.

Just my 2c,

Regards,

Martyvee

 

Gold drops 25%!

Gold drops 25%!

With all the benefit of hindsight, the smart time for Australians to buy gold was about this time last year – as long as you were also smart enough to sell in February.
The Aussie dollar was trading at over 80 US cents in mid-September and gold was worth 900-and-something Australian dollars an ounce.
In February, when gold peaked at $A1546, the Aussie dollar was in the low US-60-cents range.
Yes, that would have been a nice trade – as long as the punter didn't confuse a currency game with any alleged intrinsic value of a shiny yellow metal.
more... Gold Drops 25%! | Michael Pascoe

 

Well looks like gold is shinning again, reaching new highs... and it's moving like a freight train at the moment.

It'll be interesting to see if this rally has the strength to see it really move into new territory.

 

O.K. First target is hit ($1036).
It may reverse, but at the moment it seems that gold is moving towards $1065; $1101.

 

The World's Biggest Gold Reserves

With the price of gold reaching an all-time high of $1042 per ounce, we decided to take a look at the countries with the most of this precious metal.
Central bank and government holdings are believed to account for about 20.5 percent of the world's gold, at approximately 29,634 tons.
But the question remains: which individual countries have the most?

15. Venezuela
Gold Reserve Value: $13.07 billion
14. India
Gold Reserve Value: $13.12 billion
13. Portugal
Gold Reserve Value: $14.03 billion
12. Taiwan
Gold Reserve Value: $15.53 billion
11. European Central Bank (ECB)
Gold Reserve Value: $18.39 billion
10. Russia
Gold Reserve Value: $20.85 billion
9. Netherlands
Gold Reserve Value: $22.47 billion
8. Japan
Gold Reserve Value: $28.07 billion
7. Switzerland
Gold Reserve Value: $38.15 billion
6. China
Gold Reserve Value: $38.65 billion
5. France
Gold Reserve Value: $89.68 billion
4. Italy
Gold Reserve Value: $89.92 billion
3. International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Gold Reserve Value: $118 billion
2. Germany
Gold Reserve Value: $125.01 billion
1. United States
Gold Reserve Value: $298.36 billion

more...The World's Biggest Gold Reserves - Slideshows - CNBC.com

 

Gold hit new highs last night of $1088, but what I thought was interesting about last nights rally was that it wasn't coupled with a weakening USD which it has been over the last few weeks...

It would seem that there are a few investors looking for safe havens again and few are getting a little neverous about the short term outlook of the stock market.

What are your thoughts?

 

News that the Reserve Bank of India purchased 200 metric tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund is sending prices soaring today.
The transaction which was worth about $6.7 billion is encouraging speculation that other central banks may be looking to buy gold.
December Gold broke through its October high at $1072 early in the morning and is now pushing toward the $1085 area. New support is at the old top.
There is no resistance at this time which means $1100 is the most likely target.....

 

IN the share market bull run Mar-Oct09, gold and shares and oil and copper went up - $ down.

Dollar looking for a safe haven due to lots of printing money, same thing about to happen I think.

Tim

 

Stocks, Commodities Rally as Dollar and Yen Retreat Before Fed - Bloomberg.com

 

.....Aaron Regent, president of the Canadian gold giant, said that global output has been falling by roughly 1m ounces a year since the start of the decade.
Total mine supply has dropped by 10pc as ore quality erodes, implying that the roaring bull market of the last eight years may have further to run.
"There is a strong case to be made that we are already at 'peak gold'," he told The Daily Telegraph at the RBC's annual gold conference in London.
"Production peaked around 2000 and it has been in decline ever since, and we forecast that decline to continue. It is increasingly difficult to find ore," he said.
Ore grades have fallen from around 12 grams per tonne in 1950 to nearer 3 grams in the US, Canada, and Australia. South Africa's output has halved since peaking in 1970......
more...Barrick shuts hedge book as world gold supply runs out - Telegraph

How to Buy Physical Gold & Silver
http://www.goldstockbull.com/articles/how-to-buy-physical-gold-silver/

Gold is moving towards $1144; $1177; $1192...