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Alan Kohler's 2010 market outlook

Discussion in 'Share Investing Strategies, Theories & Education' started by Simon Hampel, 1st Feb, 2010.

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Alan Kohler's 2010 market outlook - ASX - Australian Securities Exchange

We have now finished a decade - appropriately known as the noughties, or naughties - when Wall Street has had its worst 10-year performance in history, worse even than the 1930s, and when the Australian sharemarket has outperformed the rest of the world by 70 per cent.

Normally you would say 'Buy America, sell Australia' because first, bad decades on the US sharemarket are normally followed by very good ones, and second, because the Australian sharemarket has never outperformed the world for more than five years, let alone 10.

But these are not normal times, in case you have forgotten - and it would be understandable if you had - we have just been through the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, an event economists call the Great Recession.

The US, UK, Europe and Japan are all still mired in debt, and although their economies are recovering as they float on a wave of liquidity and fiscal stimulus, and their sharemarkets are anticipating a rapid snap back in profits, disappointment looms.

The other reason things are not normal is China. This has also been the decade when China arrived and changed everything for Australia.

That, and the lack of a dot.com bust in Australia, is why the Australian sharemarket outperformed the rest of the world from the beginning of the decade.

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Simon Hampel, 1st Feb, 2010

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